Michelle has been featured in Mortgage Introducer discussing what the recent US–Iran ceasefire could mean for UK borrowers, and why it’s not as simple as “rates will now fall.”
The past few weeks have shown just how quickly global events can ripple into the mortgage market. As tensions escalated in the Middle East, oil prices surged, inflation concerns returned, and mortgage rates climbed sharply as a result.
Now, with a ceasefire in place, markets have reacted almost instantly.
Swap rates – the key driver behind fixed mortgage pricing – have started to ease, and we’re already seeing early signs of lenders adjusting. Expectations for further interest rate rises have also softened, with forecasts shifting from multiple hikes to potentially just one this year.
But, and this is the crucial point Michelle highlights, this is not a return to “cheap mortgages.”
Why borrowers shouldn’t expect a sudden drop
While the ceasefire has improved sentiment, the mortgage market doesn’t move in straight lines.
Rates rose quickly during the conflict and they won’t unwind overnight. Lenders are still pricing in uncertainty and the ceasefire itself is fragile, with markets reacting day by day
Even after the recent easing, mortgage rates remain significantly higher than they were just weeks ago.
Michelle’s view: focus on strategy, not headlines
Michelle’s message is clear: this is a moment for calm, not knee-jerk decisions.
Trying to “time the market” based on global headlines is risky. What matters more is having a strategy:
- Understanding what you can comfortably afford
- Securing a rate when it works for your circumstances
- Using tools like 6-month mortgage offers to protect your position
Because while global events may influence rates, your personal financial plan should always lead the decision.
The bigger picture
If the ceasefire holds, we could see a gradual stabilisation in mortgage pricing over the coming months. But if tensions return, volatility will follow.
In other words: the direction of travel may be improving, but we’re not out of the woods yet.
